HOUSTON, Jan. 20 -- An extended war with Iraq would have severe consequences that are likely unanticipated by the US and its allies, said some academic experts at a Jan. 17 forum on Middle East oil at the University of Houston.

The world economy is "in good shape to weather a quick, victorious war" between Iraq and US-led forces, " said Joseph A Pratt, Cullen professor of history and business at the University of Houston. But the world economy is not prepared "if this becomes a real war instead of a TV war" as was Desert Storm in 1991, he said.

If anticipated military action against Iraq bogs down or--even worse--spills over into other Middle East oil-producing countries, Pratt predicted, "The US will have no allies in a long war, including about half of the US (population) if large numbers of body bags start coming home."
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One of several "unspeakable" dangers that could come from anticipated military action against Iraq is an escalation of terrorism against the US, Pratt said.

Meanwhile, other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have warned that they can't make up simultaneous loss of production from both Iraq and Venezuela, where oil production and exports have been crippled by a general strike now in its eighth week, aimed a ousting Venezuela President Hugo Chávez.

"The potential problem of losing 5 million b/d (of world oil supplies through a war in Iraq and the Venezuelan strike) should not be taken lightly by anybody," warned Michael J. Economides, professor of chemical engineering at the University of Houston. "The loss of 3 million b/d could drive oil prices above $40/bbl," he said.

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