Removing Saddam Hussein now will definitely have dramatic and far-reaching consequences, extending far beyond Iraq. The shock waves may well imperil the rigid autocratic states such as Saudi Arabia that benefited most from the 1991 conflict.

No one should doubt Iraq's potential. With its sophisticated and well-educated population, its skilled work force and diverse economy, Iraq is like no other Arab state. Baghdad vies with Cairo as one of the traditional centres of the Arab world. And, despite being impoverished by a decade of crippling sanctions and decimated by Saddam Hussein's failed wars against both Iran and Kuwait, the Iraqi middle class represents the most fertile ground in the entire Arab world in which to nurture a broad-based civil society.

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That 15 of the 19 suicide hijackers were Saudis angered many Americans, but the aftermath of Sept. 11 also exposed the Saudi monarchy's Faustian bargain with Islamic militants. Saudi support for the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, Saudi money pouring into radical Islamic schools and Saudi reluctance to let the U.S. military use Saudi bases, all contributed to a mushrooming American disaffection for the Saudi royal family.
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If the feudal Saudi royals are the biggest losers in a post-Saddam Middle East, a new powerful Iraq would be the biggest winner. And the greatest consequence of that might be in what is broadly termed the Arab street, the volatile and mostly angry mass of disenfranchised people who tend to vent their frustration and fury in displays of anti-Americanism (in large part because railing against their own governments is forbidden).

From Damascus to Djibouti, dissent in the Arab world is all but impossible. For most of the 20th century, that suited the Western powers just fine. As long as the oil flowed and key Arab regimes were "allies," London, Paris and Washington were happy to prop up thuggish and dictatorial regimes.

It is far too early to know whether President George W. Bush will deliver on his promise to oust Saddam Hussein. Even less certain is whether the President will invest the kind of Marshall Plan effort to rebuild Iraq.

If all Washington really wants is a reliable ally in Baghdad and President Bush isn't serious when he says that Iraqis deserve a decent, free society, then toppling Saddam Hussein may make little difference to the world's 150 million Arabs, few of whom live in a real democracy.

But sweeping change in Iraq, especially if democracy can take hold, could rival the fall of the Berlin Wall in unleashing unstoppable forces of change across the entire region.

» Liberate Iraq, free the people